Friday, November 03, 2006

Chicken Counting

Dems everywhere are gleefully antsy for next Wednesday to dawn, believing their party will definitely be in control of the House, and possibly the Senate. Not so fast, folks, remember that old admonishment about counting and chickens and hatching and such.

As much as it hurts me to say this, I believe this is what'll happen: If the Dems do pick up the House (which I doubt) it'll only be by one or two seats. This would be a disaster, as they'd not be able to get anything of substance done in the next two years, yet would take all the blame for the righties past mismanagement of government giving the Reps plenty of cannon fodder in '08. And the Senate? It will remain firmly in rightie hands. My reasons?

  • Remember, to these guys winning is not everything, it's the only thing. There's nothing, absolutely nothing that they won't do to hang onto power. If you think things have gotten as ugly as they can get over the last week, wait until their so-called "72 Hour Plan" kicks in tomorrow.
  • The Republican gerrymandering projects over the last 12+ years make a Dem win all but impossible.
  • The righties know that if the House Dems get subpoena power more than a handful of political careers and personal lives are going to be ruined. The stakes are just too high to let the people decide.
  • The vote manipulation and outright fraud we'll see next week (and are already seeing this week) will make '04 and '00 "irregularities" look like jaywalking. But this time we're much less likely to be able to prove it due to the fact that the vast majority of folks will be voting on electronic machines without a dependable audit trail.
  • Lastly, this little article in Barron's slipped in under the radar a few weeks ago with little fanfare, but it's simple and sobering. (Though WaPo is still hopefull)

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